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BlackRock: There’s no need to fear a market correction | Trustnet Skip to the content

BlackRock: There’s no need to fear a market correction

10 April 2012

The group’s chief equity strategist says the current share price turbulence was an entirely predictable consequence of equities' strong start to the year.

By Joshua Ausden,

News Editor, FE Trustnet

Fears of a significant correction in equity markets are unfounded, according to BlackRock’s Bob Doll, who says that there hasn’t been enough poor economic data to cause a slump.

The FTSE and S&P 500 have fallen by 3.5 and 2.6 per cent respectively since mid-March this year, prompting fears that the 2012 rally has already come to an abrupt end.

However Doll, chief equity strategist at BlackRock, believes a pull-back in equity prices will be modest at the very worst.

"We do not believe that fundamental macro conditions have changed enough, or at all, to warrant a downgrade of our view towards equities," he explained.

"For a couple of months now we have been suggesting that the strong advance in equity prices that occurred from last fall through mid-March may mean that markets were overdue for some sort of consolidation period."

"However, beyond the short-term choppiness, our constructive outlook boils down to the fact that monetary authorities remain accommodative even while leading economic data has improved."

"Given the current backdrop, we believe share price turbulence is more likely to reflect the consolidation of prior gains rather than the start of some sort of large downturn."

Doll says that although markets have been consistently volatile over the past three years, investors can take comfort from relatively low maximum losses during this time.

"Since the current bull market began in early 2009, we have seen many short-term corrections of around 5 to 7 per cent that have occurred without any serious worsening of fundamentals, so that range represents a possible starting point for any sort of near-term correction," he explained.

Performance of indices since March 2009


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Source: FE Analytics

Last week saw the release of a disappointing US labour market report for March, with payrolls growing by a less-than-expected 120,000. That said, the unemployment rate fell to 8.2 per cent – its lowest level in over three years.

However, Doll believes markets have overreacted to this data, and says that at this point any pullback should be viewed as a potential buying opportunity – particularly for those with a long-term view.

He commented: "It is hard to deny the improvements we have seen in the global macro backdrop over the last several months. Notwithstanding March’s slowdown, improvements in the labour market have suggested that the US economy has appeared to be transitioning to a more sustainable trajectory."

"Additionally, despite the headlines last week over a troubled Spanish debt auction that renewed concerns over the situation in Europe, policymakers do appear to be moving down the correct path."

While Doll acknowledges that various challenges remain, including the knock-on effect of a worse-than-expected recession in the eurozone, and a further hike in oil prices, he remains upbeat overall.

"On balance we continue to believe that the positives outweigh the negatives," he finished.

Performance of fund vs sector and benchmark

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Source: FE Analytics


Doll also heads up the £113m BlackRock US Dynamic portfolio, which has marginally underperformed its sector and benchmark since the manager took over from Richard Boone in October 2004.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.