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Investors braced for Lehman-style crash | Trustnet Skip to the content

Investors braced for Lehman-style crash

24 May 2012

More than half of FE Trustnet users expect a market slump this year on the scale of 2008, but one IFA is unconvinced by the contagion risks of a Greek default.

By Thomas McMahon,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

Investors are over-estimating the potential fallout from the eurozone debt crisis as the fear of a 2008-style crash overshadows the facts, according to Bestinvest’s Ben Seager-Scott.

A recent FE Trustnet poll showed that 58 per cent of readers think the eurozone crisis will hit markets either as hard as or harder than the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008, which saw the FTSE 100 lose 28 per cent of its value in a month. Of the 611 investors polled, a quarter said they expect a crash this year worse than what followed the collapse of the US bank.ALT_TAG

However, although the eventual outcome of a Greek default is uncertain, Seager-Scott says that investors are wrong to fear such a dramatic fallout.

"The problem with Lehman Brothers was principally counter-party risk and contagion," he explained.

"No-one realised how inter-connected the international banking system was and because banking underpins everything else in the economy that was the cause of the crisis."

"The risk with Greece is less of a banking collapse but more of a general economic contagion."

"You are not going to see contracts going unfulfilled with US or UK banks."

Politicians have been warning of the risks of contagion from Greek financials through exposed banks in northern Europe; however, Seager-Scott is unconvinced.

"If Greece goes it’s difficult to see what the contagion mechanism would be. You could argue the contagion is going to be more political than economic," he said.

"You could have the political contagion of governments deciding that you can renege on deals after you’ve made them."

An earlier FE Trustnet poll of 1,266 people laid bare the pessimism of UK investors, with 83 per cent of respondents expecting the eurozone crisis to hit markets in 2012 either as hard or harder than it did last year.

"What we have to remember is that markets in the long-run tend to be driven by fundamentals, but in the short-run sentiment wins," Seager-Scott said.

"When people are in a negative mindset they tend to focus on the negatives."

"No-one is sure what will happen if Greece leaves the euro. There’s a lot of fear around. As an investor what you need to look at is whether the market is pricing in a better or worse scenario than what is going to happen."

"There will come a moment when the market is pricing in a worse scenario, and that becomes a counter-intuitive buying opportunity," he added.

Seager-Scott says he can understand why investors are concerned, as even policymakers don’t have a clear idea of what the future holds.

"I do sometimes feel sorry for the government. The reality is the treasury is loaded with incredibly clever people who don’t know what is going to happen," he finished.

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