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Buying opportunity opens in mining stocks

19 July 2012

The sector has been hit hard over the past six months, but Barings’ Clive Burstow says this is likely to be nothing more than a temporary blip.

By Thomas McMahon,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

The urbanisation of the developing world and robust demand for metals in those markets mean mining stocks are a solid long-term proposition, according to Clive Burstow, investment manager of the Baring Global Mining fund. 

According to data from FE Analytics, the HSBC Global Mining index has declined by 21.28 per cent over the past six months while the MSCI World Index has lost just 0.56 per cent.

However, Burstow says the long-term growth drivers of mining stocks have been under-appreciated as investors have been caught up in the anxiety over the eurozone debt crisis. 

Performance of indices over 6 months

ALT_TAG

Source: FE Analytics

Burstow believes that China, which is one of the major consumers of commodities such as steel and copper, is focusing on ‘quality’ of growth, rather than growth ‘for growth’s sake’, meaning that its economy is set on a more sustainable long-term path. 

"We continue to see strong prospects for effective and targeted stimulus by the central government, which should filter through to the Chinese consumer and infrastructure spending," the manager commented.

"Both are important supports for commodities such as copper and steel and the mining sector more generally."  

He added that there are signs the US economy is starting to pick up, which would be a strong positive for mining stocks. 

Data suggests the housing market is beginning to stabilise, even though recent employment figures have been poor. 

Burstow added that an on-going decline in the supply of iron ore and copper is supportive of long-term commodity prices, even if it means miners are likely to miss production targets in the shorter-term. 

Additionally, current industrial production and fixed asset investment expenditure levels suggest that demand for copper in China is in fact stronger than consumption numbers indicate.

The manager is also positive on gold, saying that the price is likely to go higher than the current range of $1,500-$1,600. 

He currently holds gold equities as well as an exchange traded commodity (ETC) position in the commodity. 

Another precious metal he likes is platinum, saying: "The price environment for the group of metals has remained underwhelming in the past 12 months, but we think that this will improve once we overcome short-term macro ‘bumps’."

"These metals have felt the impact of Europe's debt crisis, with a general erosion of discretionary consumer spending on items like cars, the largest source of industrial demand for the likes of platinum and palladium."

Baring Global Mining is a regulated offshore portfolio that is domiciled in Ireland. It was launched in March this year. 

The manager has the freedom to invest across the market cap spectrum and has recently upped his weighting to large caps as a way to reduce the volatility of the fund's performance.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.