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UK’s struggle only just beginning, experts warn | Trustnet Skip to the content

UK’s struggle only just beginning, experts warn

25 April 2013

First-quarter results released today show the UK narrowly avoided a triple-dip recession, but economists say the Government needs to do more to encourage growth.

By Anthony Luzio,

Production Editor, FE Trustnet

Industry commentators often point out that there is little correlation between the domestic stock market and economy, and that the large proportion of earnings that FTSE 100 companies derive from abroad mean that they are capable of thriving even while the UK is in recession.

However, markets are driven as much by confidence as fundamentals, meaning a rally is much more likely while the economy is growing.

With this in mind, FE Trustnet asks a selection of industry experts for their reaction to the preliminary Q1 GDP figures released today, which showed the UK beat forecasts, to deliver growth of 0.3 per cent.


Azad Zangana (pictured), European economist at Schroders

"Initial estimates for Q1 GDP show the UK narrowly avoided an unprecedented triple-dip recession: UK output expanded by 0.3 per cent in the three months to March, having contracted by 0.3 per cent the previous three months." ALT_TAG

"The reading was stronger than expected – according to the Bloomberg consensus, the city was expecting growth of just 0.1 per cent."

"The news of having avoided a triple-dip recession will come as a relief for the chancellor George Osborne, who was recently told by the IMF that a change of course on his austerity plans may be necessary."

"In our view, the Government has done well not to chase aggressive fiscal targets when it has missed them, but instead has tried to maintain some momentum in the reform of public services."

"Nevertheless, it should be using near historic-low interest rates to undertake huge multi-decade infrastructure investment projects, which the UK desperately needs to unlock its future growth potential."

"Overall, regardless of the political point-scoring that will follow, the figures confirm what we have known for some time."

"The UK economy is facing severe headwinds with the household sector, banking sector and Government all trying to deleverage at the same time."

"Meanwhile, the non-banking corporate sector – the only healthy part of the economy – has been shaken by the crisis in the eurozone. As a result, the economy is barely generating any growth at all."

"Looking ahead, we expect the UK economy to pick up in the second half of the year on the back of stronger corporate investment."

"However, the key threat in the near-term is the faltering eurozone economy – the UK’s biggest export destination."

"Political instability coupled with severe austerity is damaging confidence in the eurozone and having a knock-on impact on UK exporters."

"We expect the Bank of England to respond with another £25bn to £50bn of quantitative easing in May, which will complement the expansion of the Funding for Lending scheme."



Stuart Welch (pictured), chief executive of TD Direct Investing

"Whilst this is great news for the economy, and it's good to hear that the UK has avoided a triple-dip recession, long-term investors know that GDP movements don't necessarily translate into market growth." ALT_TAG

"Equally, long-term investors know that GDP can go up and down from quarter to quarter."

"So while indicators of this nature might help you form one view of the market, don't get distracted from your overall investment strategy."

"Instead, keep your focus on the fundamentals of investing: understand your risk appetite, your investment goals and keep educating yourself along the way."

"Remember that costs can significantly reduce your long-term returns too, so consider lower-cost versions of products – such as clean funds."


Dan Morris (pictured) and Tom Elliott, global market strategists at JP Morgan

"Today's UK economy expansion of 0.3 per cent for Q1 2013 GDP is better than expected and should be marginally positive for equities, although initial reaction from UK stocks appears relatively muted." ALT_TAG

"While positive, today's numbers don't resolve the ongoing debate over the primary cause of the slow growth in the UK and whether it is more attributable to the implementation of Government austerity or dependent on continued weak growth from the surrounding eurozone economies."

"Investors shouldn't be overly focused on the impact of the UK GDP figures or judge their allocation to UK equities on the back of this."

"UK equities look attractive despite the weak economic backdrop, particularly when you consider most fixed income options in the UK like gilts, linkers and corporate bonds look extremely expensive."

"Investors seeking growth should be allocating primarily abroad, particularly towards emerging market equities, but still UK equities have done well so far this year and that should continue."

"The large cap UK index is up 6 per cent year-to-date, beating Europe ex-UK. Performance is not quite as good as the MSCI USA index but valuations for UK equities are better than they are for the US."

"Meanwhile, UK small cap stocks continue to overcome weak domestic growth in outperforming on a relative basis."


Gavin Oldham, chief executive of The Share Centre

"We may have narrowly avoided a triple-dip recession by the current measure but GDP is failing us as an indicator of economic activity." ALT_TAG

"Electronic delivery of huge swathes of consumption means that consumers are increasingly satisfied without leaving much of a monetary impact."

"GDP can only measure things with a monetary impact. De-monetisation of economic activity is not being measured by economists, the OBR or the BoE."

"The chancellor should ask economists to get a grip on the impact of de-monetisation, from both a domestic and a global perspective."

"The people do not feel depression because there is no depression."

"We have a public finance system broken by more than 60 years of universal benefits, and now an abrupt end to the old commercial business model as a result of both the credit crunch and de-monetisation."

"Most businesses can cope with this, but governments can't."


"To see the economy thrive, we must address, not ring-fence, universal benefits (including health and education) to remove the annual deficit."

"Then we must write off that part of the national debt held by the Bank of England."

"Hyperinflation will not follow, as it is de-monetisation and unbridled electronic delivery which has suppressed it for the past 20 years and will continue to do so for the next 20 years."

"We are going through an economic transformation as large as the start of the Industrial Revolution, but we do not yet recognise it."

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