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Six ways to beat inflation over the long-term | Trustnet Skip to the content

Six ways to beat inflation over the long-term

13 May 2013

Ben Yearsley, head of investment research at Charles Stanley Direct, says that investors have to be prepared to lose money in the short-term if they want to keep up with rising prices in the long-run.

By Ben Yearsley

Charles Stanley Direct

Let's get one thing straight: outside cash there are no low-risk investment options right now.

Even government bonds look shaky in respect to some heavily indebted European countries and the bonds of nations with sounder finances offer scant returns, often significantly below the rate of inflation.

ALT_TAG Since the start of the global financial crisis six years ago, investors' perception of risk has changed.

They have prioritised safety over growth – hence the high price and low yields of "safe haven" government bonds. The Cypriot crisis has been a further wake-up call: even cash held in some banks is no longer sacrosanct.

Yet there are a variety of investments I believe are capable of long-term returns ahead of inflation – the goal of most investors.

Here are my current thoughts on the most noteworthy.


Equities

Equities remain a sensible, albeit more volatile, investment choice for those looking to maximise returns over the long-term.

They are not the bargains they were a couple of years ago, but with generous dividend yields of up to 5 per cent there is still good reason to suppose equities will perform well against a backdrop of moderate inflation and ultra-low interest rates.

Equity income funds can offer a healthy starting level of income that has the potential to rise significantly over time. The income can either be taken or reinvested for growth.

Performance of funds vs sector and index over 5yrs

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Source: FE Analytics

Equity income funds on our recommended list include Artemis Income and JOHCM UK Equity Income.



Gold

Following the worst sell-off in gold for 30 years, many investors are scratching their heads.

Performance of indices over 1yr

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Source: FE Analytics

A fall in the gold price of around 13 per cent over two days in April is exceptional and seems at odds with an environment of low interest rates and quantitative easing.

In theory, gold, the supply of which is finite, should appreciate as more paper currency is printed.

The recent price-dip serves to highlight the complexity of the gold market. Although sometimes seen as a safe-haven asset, it is not always the case.

Investors flocked to gold in the summer of 2011 during the eurozone debt crisis, yet during periods of more extreme market stress the price has fallen.

With the advent of exchange-traded products, gold has become easily tradeable, which adds to its volatility – it is certainly not a substitute for cash, but the recent fall could interest those looking for a bargain.

A physically backed gold ETF is worth considering or, for the more speculative, a gold mining fund such as BlackRock Gold & General.


Commodities

Other hard commodities, especially base metals, seem intrinsically linked to Chinese growth.

As growth has slowed, they have taken a tumble, showing extreme levels of volatility in some cases.

Soft commodities, such as wheat, corn, sugar and so on, move to a different beat, and as the world's population has gone through 7 billion, demand continues to increase.

However, each has its own unique supply-and-demand dynamics, including fickle factors such as the weather.

Interestingly, it is entirely possible in the near future that water will become a tradeable commodity, like oil is today, as it becomes scarcer.


Infrastructure

Infrastructure investing provides the backbone of many countries: roads, airports, mobile phone masts, electricity networks and water distribution.

High-profile investments by sovereign wealth funds have highlighted the attraction of infrastructure – inflation-proofed cash-flow from essential assets.

One way to access this is through the First State Global Listed Infrastructure fund, which invests in utility companies as well as firms involved in roads, railways, ports, and oil and gas storage.


Performance of fund vs sector and benchmark over 1yr

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Source: FE Analytics

It should be noted that the fund does not invest directly in physical infrastructure, so the risks involved are those normally associated with equities.


Property

Property in some of the world's top cities appears recession-proof. Money has flowed into prime residential and commercial London real estate in recent years, for example, bucking the general property downturn.

However, it has been a different matter for secondary property in the regions. With lots of competition, especially in retail, rents have been under pressure.

For those with the expertise and a long time horizon, property offers an income-oriented access to a real asset; however, for now, I find it difficult to get excited about property as an investment.


Art and wine

Art has proved somewhat recession-proof over the last few years, with prices seemingly going ever higher; however, the costs of ownership can be significant and there are expensive commissions when dealing with auction houses.

Fine wine, meanwhile, has been more volatile. For most of the last decade, prices increased, with many great French vintages declared. However, with a downturn in Chinese demand, prices have fallen back to more reasonable levels.

Fine wine prices used to be correlated to how well the City was doing; now it seems they are linked to Chinese economic health – as with many investments, it seems.

Ben Yearsley is head of investment research at Charles Stanley Direct. The views expressed here are his own. 

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