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China GDP figures fan flames of interest in emerging markets | Trustnet Skip to the content

China GDP figures fan flames of interest in emerging markets

19 April 2010

Investors may need to look beyond the obvious BRICs, says Financial Express' Lora Coventry.

By Lora Coventry,

Analyst, Financial Express

First-quarter China GDP grew at an annualised rate of 11.9 per cent, yet another reminder to the investor of the growing significance of BRIC countries. But, the trend is not as defined in the investment trust universe, particularly when looking back over the past 24 months.

Net sales figures from Winterflood Securities show that six months back, Global Emerging Markets lagged behind Property, Global Bonds, and North America. Sales hit around £140m in October 2009.

And looking over the full two year period, Winterflood notes that there has been a large issuance of subscription shares in investment trusts, especially in the emerging market and Asian sectors.

"Investors certainly flocked to emerging markets last year, with many eager for exposure to large cap companies. That means there has been a naturally high exposure to the BRIC countries," investment trust analyst at Oriel Securities Tom Tuite-Dalton says.

"Flows also seemed to be strong into Asia and Latin America, while emerging Europe and Russia lagged behind, so that is likely where investors will see value this coming year," he adds.

Tuite-Dalton adds that investors should look away from the more obvious BRIC countries, and aim for investment trusts that spread their holdings in order to diversify risk.

But an announcement from JP Morgan Asset Management last month that it plans to launch an investment trust to invest solely in Brazil – with a target size of £50m – shows it, at least, still thinks there is value to be had for investors in BRIC. JP Morgan also has closed-ended vehicles in China, Russia and India.

Winterflood, meanwhile, says investment trusts offer good exposure to emerging markets, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, and the Asia Pacific ex Japan sector in particular.

"There are more funds in this strategy than others, and all have assets of more than £100m," Winterflood analyst James Brown says.

Within those funds, Brown picks out Financial Express One Crown rated Henderson TR Pacific, which has the highest exposure to China and Hong Kong; 49 per cent. It is also one of the highest performers within the sub-sector over a one, three and five year period, according to data from the Association of Investment Companies (AIC).

 Fund  Sector  1-yr 3-yr 5-yr  10-yr
Aberdeen Asian Income
Asia Pacific ex Japan 149.36  148.07  
Aberdeen Asian Smaller Companies Asia Pacific ex Japan  192.74  142.76  208.91  484.21
Aberdeen New Dawn
Asia Pacific ex Japan  186.5  151.6  234.3  471.43
Edinburgh Dragon
Asia Pacific ex Japan  164.82  158.24  253.71  214.58
Fidelity Asian Values
Asia Pacific ex Japan  180.13  155.87  251.28  176.97
Henderson Far East Income Asia Pacific ex Japan  148.13  149.75  197.81  495
Henderson TR Pacific Asia Pacific ex Japan 166.82
 145.15  225.86  161.2
INVESCO Asia
Asia Pacific ex Japan 162.65
 147.23  242.63  201.42
JP Morgan Asian
Asia Pacific ex Japan 149.57  130.4  208.22  169.77
Pacific Assets
Asia Pacific ex Japan 155.98 124.42
 209.61  164.6
Pacific Horizon
Asia Pacific ex Japan 172.03 116.57  210.3  306.32
Schroder Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific ex Japan 165.61 137.16  210.54  221.53
Schroder Oriental Income Asia Pacific ex Japan 192.19 136.04    
Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies Asia Pacific ex Japan  206.67
156.96  250.13  638.12
Weighted Average
166.56 143.32 222.61 228.33
Source: AIC

"This [exposure to China] is not surprising as the manager [Andrew Beal] is very positive on the prospects for China and invests with a clear growth strategy. Also unsurprisingly, at the other end of the spectrum are the funds managed by Aberdeen Asia, a fund management group with a well defined quality value style," Brown says.

The Henderson trust, which has a 46.4 per cent weighting in financials, and a 17.5 per cent weighting in TMT, took on more risk that its sector, but returned less to investors over a one year period. It took on 25.5 per cent volatility, returning 72.9 per cent, compared to 20.5 per cent risk and 77.1 per cent returns from the sector. 

Other funds were less volatile, meanwhile. The Aberdeen Asian Smaller Companies trust took in 17.3 per cent risk, and returned 99.5 per cent over a one year period.

Financial Express data shows that the three year picture is somewhat different; the Baillie Gifford Horizon trust took on most risk for least return, while the Aberdeen Asian Income took on least risk over the period between 31 March 2007 to 31 March 2010.

Asia Pacific ex Japan sector, 3yr

ALT_TAG

Source: Financial Express Analytics


Exhibiting perhaps the best blend of risk and reward was the Edinburgh Dragon trust, which returned 64 per cent over the period against risk of about 27 per cent. This £420m vehicle, managed by Aberdeen has a Two Crown rating from Financial Express, and is somewhat focused on the TMT and high tech opportunities in the region - holdings such as Samsung, Infosys Technologies and China Mobile.

As always, investors should look for opportunities beyond the obvious, as in the case of a collective investment portfolio such as Edinburgh Dragon, which blends elements of the BRICs, Emerging Markets and developed Asian markets such as Korea.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.