Connecting: 216.73.216.130
Forwarded: 216.73.216.130, 104.23.197.12:57022
Managers expect slowdown in China growth | Trustnet Skip to the content

Managers expect slowdown in China growth

06 August 2010

China GDP is expected to slow in the third quarter, but managers still have a positive outlook.

By Charlotte Banks,

Analyst, Financial Express

Growth in China could fall away by the third-quarter of this year, according to a number of fund managers investing in the country.

Charlie Awdry, manager of the Gartmore China Opportunities fund said growth rates there peaked in the first quarter of 2010 and have been moderating.

"This is shown by the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) which started at 55.8 per cent in January and came out for July at 51.2 per cent on 1 August 2010."
ALT_TAG
Awdry (pictured right) said it is quite possible that economic activity could trough, especially if the government can put together any activity in the low cost housing sector which is a social and economic priority.

Fen Sung, manager of the Premier China Enterprise fund said he expects a slowdown in quarter three after good performances in the first and second quarter.

"China has already published first and second quarter GDP figure, first quarter was 11.9 per cent growth, and the second quarter was 10.3 per cent growth," he said.

"China was concerned that if it kept growing at 12 per cent every quarter then it would create an asset bubble. For me, seeing growth drop to 10.3 per cent in the second quarter is what China wanted."

ALT_TAGSung (pictured left) said that despite the slow down in GDP he still believes the outlook looks positive for China.

"Forecasts still show that China is going to grow by 10 per cent. Whilst I believe third-quarter will be slightly lower that 10.3 per cent and similar in the fourth quarter, this will still provide China with a 10 per cent growth for the whole year, which considering the recession we have been through is excellent," he said.



Performance over 6-mths


ALT_TAG

Source: Financial Express Analytics

ALT_TAGWilliam Fong, (pictured left) manager of the Baring China Select fund and Baring China Growth fund agrees the series of tightening measures introduced by the Chinese government will impact growth yet he also remains positive looking ahead.

"In the fourth quarter of this year, the market will expect the policy to change, the tightening measures have already started to impact the economy and we would expect these to relax in quarter four. This will be positive for the economy allowing it to rebound from the third quarter," he said.

Despite the possibility of a drop in GDP growth in quarter three, Keith Churchouse, director of Churchouse Financial Planning said he still had confidence in China.

"I would not come out of China, the reason for that is that is becoming quite an established new market. I have spoken to many bankers and other individuals who are still arguing that the engine rooms for growth will remain to be and China and India of the BRIC economies," he said.

"One quarter's drop in performance, if it was to occur, is certainly not a reason to move out and the irony of it is if you were to move out you can guarantee you will get your timing wrong in going back in. I still have confidence in China's abilities as a nation to perform and I certainly would not rush to move out," he concluded.

Editor's Picks

Loading...

Videos from BNY Mellon Investment Management

Loading...

Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.