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Inflation fears affecting asset choices | Trustnet Skip to the content

Inflation fears affecting asset choices

13 August 2010

Intermediaries point to equities and index linked gilts to guard against rising inflation.

By Charlotte Banks,

Analyst, Financial Express

As fears of rising prices in the UK persist, intermediaries are pointing to equities to help investors protect their portfolios against inflation.

The Bank of England governor Mervin King warned on 11 August that inflation was to stay above the Bank's two per cent target until the end of 2011.

Tim Cockerill, head of research at Rowan said if the UK sees modest inflation then over the longer period equities would be the better option.

"In some ways for lots of investors who have got established portfolios with equities in it, they have already got quite a lot of the inflation proofing built in there," he said. 

"The danger is if inflation gets too high then the relationship with equities breaks down, but I do not think we are going there."

Martin Bamford, director at Informed Choice agrees that inflation will not reach high levels, but said equities would be the right choice for those who think inflation will increase.

"If global food prices and fuel prices go up again this would tend to be linked to the economic recovery in general because that it what the oil prices are correlated with. I think those will be factors that push up inflation, but at the same time I think we are going to see other factors pushing inflation down and pushing us towards deflation, especially in the UK where we have seen the austerity measures and public sector pay cuts.

"Inflation is a difficult one to call at the moment, but over the longer term the real investments like equities and property are the ones that will benefit from higher inflation so, if that is where you see it going, equities is the place to be," he said.

Data from Financial Express shows there are 105 funds available in the IMA UK Equity Income sector for retail investors to invest in.

Over a five year period the Unicorn UK Income fund, managed by John McClure, was the best performer returning 40.17 per cent to investors.

Performance over 5-yrs

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Source: Financial Express Analytics

Traditionally, index-linked gilts have been hailed as inflation proof investments,however, Cockerill said from a valuation point of view the asset class could be quite expensive.

"You have to be careful at the entry point because of valuation. Index-linked gilts performed reasonably strongly lately, which would indicate a less attractive valuation."

Mak Dampier, head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown agrees and said he would not buy these because of their prices at the current time.

Instead Dampier suggested investing in those areas, such as fuel, where people fear price increases.

"If you are worried about petrol prices and want to counter-balance it then buy something like the CF Junior Oils trust, which means you are buying 30 exploration companies. You could buy those areas and gain from any price increases."

Further analysis shows there are 750 IMA UT and OEIC funds with exposure to oil and gas, of these three have a weighting of 50 per cent or more. The performance of these funds compared to the CF Junior Oils trust can be seen in the chart below.

Performance over 1-yr

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Source: Financial Express Analytics


As long as inflation does not spiral out of control, Dampier also pointed to bonds, rather than looking for something with a direct link to inflation. 

"Funds like Invesco Perpetual's Monthly Income Plus fund for example," he said.

"They are not inflation proof but as long as inflation does not get completely out of hand, and you have some growth as well, a portfolio like that should do quite well as I still see no chance of interest rates going up," he said.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.