Dividend cover fell to its lowest level since the global financial crisis last year but the tide is turning, according to the Henderson International Income Trust’s Global Dividend Cover report.
In 2020, cover – the amount held back in cash during the good times to pay dividends during difficult periods – fell to 1.8 times total payouts, the lowest since 2008. In the UK, this dropped to just 0.3 times, as the country suffered exaggerated cuts due to the oil sector.
But the recovery this year should increase cover to 2.1 times this year, while in 2022 it is expected to rise to 2.4 times – the highest since 2013.
Last year, dividends dropped by 24%, or 8% in sterling terms, down to £1.6trn, with more than half of the world’s companies posting lower profits.
In the second quarter of 2021, global dividends grew 26% year-on-year but remain 7% lower than pre-pandemic levels, while the Global Dividend Cover report predicted that for the full-year 2021, profit growth would be 18%, with a 3% rise in dividends in sterling terms.
Ben Lofthouse manager of the Henderson International Income Trust, said that although the picture is improving, this has not been factored into share prices.
“As we stand today, dividend resilience has improved markedly, but this is simply not reflected in the share prices of many dividend-paying companies around the world,” he said.
There are fewer “yield traps” today too, the report said. According to analysis during the pandemic, one in five companies were a potential yield trap – when high yields appear attractive but are unsustainable.
Today, around one company in eight is a potential yield trap. On average they yield 6.7% over the next 12 months, compared to 2.8% for the global top 1,200 overall.
“This excessive yield signals that the market has questions about the long-term prospects,” the report said.
The news will be welcome to income investors, as more than four-fifths of those that bought funds for their dividends have suffered losses to their payouts since the start of the pandemic, according to a report by the Association of Investment Companies (AIC).
In the survey, more than a quarter of income investors (28%) reported a ‘considerable’ or ‘big’ impact to their portfolios, with 45% of people forced to accept a lower income.
Around a third (29%) made changes to their portfolio, usually by either switching to other income areas, moving to growth funds or topping up investments that are more likely to pay out.
Annabel Brodie-Smith, communications director of the AIC, said the “outlook is brightening” for income investors, but noted that some investors still had to cut back on everyday luxuries or cancel holidays due to the reduced dividend picture.
However, she said investment companies that can hold back revenue reserves have been able to smooth out the ride since the start of 2020 and should continue to do so next year.
Indeed, last month Investec analysts Alan Brierley and Ben Newell found that 12 out of 16 IT UK Equity Income trusts studied increased their dividends in 2020.
Brodie-Smith said: “Investment companies’ ability to use a revenue reserve, invest in a wider range of income-generating assets and use capital profits to top up dividends has helped investment companies deliver income when investors needed it most.”