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QE3 to give green light to gold rally | Trustnet Skip to the content

QE3 to give green light to gold rally

03 September 2012

The price of bullion has stayed relatively flat in the last year or so, but a debasement in the value of global currencies could cause a significant spike.

By Alexander Paget,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

Physical gold could be set for a 2009/2010-style rally if the US embarks on another round of quantitative easing (QE), says ETF Securities’ Scott Thompson.

Inflows have already started pouring into gold ETFs following rumours of the stimulus measure, with more than half of the $225m sales ETF Securities recorded last week going into products that track the precious metal. 

Thompson, head of retail sales at the firm, expects demand for both bullion and gold equities to continue to soar.

"With the market heavily focused on Ben Bernanke’s decision, I think QE will lead to another rally in gold," he said.

"The wish to print more money will once again debase currencies, which in turn tends to lead investors to gold." 

"We believe equities will do well as a result of the market stimulus, so gold mining stocks might get an added kick."

Thompson points to the fact that gold mining stocks have vastly underperformed gold over the last few years, meaning it could be a good time to enter markets. 

"Gold mining prices have been far more correlated to equity markets than gold and precious metal markets, which explains the underperformance," he added. 

It could well be a good time to buy up a gold ETF or fund if the precious metal behaves like it did the last time there was a round of significant quantitative easing.

Performance of fund vs index over 5-yrs

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Source: FE Analytics

According to FE data, the gold price rose by more than 50 per cent between 1 January 2009 and 1 January 2011, while a number of gold-focused funds – including the likes of BlackRock Gold & General – delivered almost 100 per cent.

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.