I’m an American – well, in spirit (the US Citizenship and Immigration Services would say otherwise) – so I do like to partake in Thanksgiving.
This year I have a lot to give thanks for: so far in 2017, the fund is up about 20 per cent. Returns have been driven in part by the extreme outperformance of growth stocks.
In the US, growth is outperforming value in every sector. Large-cap is outperforming small-cap in every sector. This is unusual and a complete reversal of 2016 trends.
This is what markets do in risk-off periods, when economic growth is below trend. Investors buy proxies for stability – sustainable, reliable and accelerating growth – when economic growth is so hard to find.
Three of the best examples of this are highlighted below.
Align Technology
To most teenagers, the path to straighter teeth has always been on train tracks: wire and brackets. That classic braces look offered an invasive and conspicuous solution in the short term, but one that would pay off in the future (you’d hope). That could be changing.
Align Technology, which makes Invisalign, a transparent brace, this year developed a product that should allow it to take a greater share of the lucrative teen market.
Align’s share price has soared more than 160 per cent year-to-date. This is not a sure thing – Align must get dentists on board as well as customers. But one thing is certain: with Invisalign you don’t have to worry about getting turkey in your teeth – you can take out your braces to eat, unlike traditional wire and brackets.
Tencent
Now the most valuable internet company in Asia, Tencent has remained under the radar for many investors.
It does mobile gaming, music and video streaming subscriptions, messaging apps. It’s the Chinese social network equivalent to Facebook and owns a 20 per cent stake in large e-commerce retailer JD.com, all of which have driven Tencent’s revenues up by staggering percentages each year. Tencent shares are up about 120 per cent in 2017 alone.
This company is the beating heart of the internet in China. And it is creating its own traditions, embedding itself in how the Chinese celebrate their New Year in the 21st century: in recent years, Tencent has sent to its users e-versions of the red envelopes used for giving money as a New Year gift.
This company offers enormous earnings growth, but it is very pricey. It could also be difficult for it to meet ever-increasing expectations.
Amazon
What can you say? I probably bought the turkey that’s on the table – and all the trimmings – from this giant of global e-commerce.
And it has extended its reach far beyond its original home: it has an online television network that can go blow for blow against the old giants and also the Whole Foods supermarket business.
Arguably, the most important division outside its main shopping network is cloud computing arm Amazon Web Services (AWS) which accounts for about three-quarters of operating profits.
This business rents out huge computing power and storage space to businesses and people round the globe. AWS gives Amazon a steady stream of information on its customers that is vital to the digital war being waged for the spending money in our pockets.
But you have to pay a very high price for Amazon and its potential future growth; this high valuation will amplify any mistake the company makes from here.
James Thomson is manager of the Rathbone Global Opportunities fund. The views expressed above are his own and should not be taken as investment advice.