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Brazil will offer investors "no surprises" post elections

08 November 2010

Dilma Rousseff is most likely to continue policies already in place for most of the past decade.

By Jonathan Boyd,

Editor-in-Chief, Financial Express

Brazil is unlikely to throw up any surprises for investors following the presidential elections, according to Carlos de Leon, co-manager of the recently launched Allianz RCM Brazil fund.

He said the victory of Dilma Rousseff, protégé of outgoing president Lula da Silva, is most likely to continue policies already in place for most of the past decade – which has seen Brazil emerge as not only a leading emerging market, but post the financial crisis in the West actually an increasingly stable recipient of foreign investment.

Rousseff takes over what is arguably a key component in any fund focused on the bigger emerging market economies or any fund investing in Latin America.

"When officially taking office on 1 January 2011, she will aim to push forward new structural reforms," said de Leon.

"New measures will focus on student loan programmes to reduce drop-out rates; new infrastructure development projects opening the door to private sector participation; further development of existing housing programmes for the low-income population; new hydrocarbon auctions via oil and gas rounds for off and onshore acreage; a modest-sized tax reform and a review of the regulatory framework for the mining sector."

"Many of these measures link up with investment themes that are attractive from our perspective and would benefit companies operating in these sectors."


Michael Konstantinov outlines Brazilian investment opportunities

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Click here to watch the video: Michael Konstantinov outlines Brazilian investment opportunities


Key issues that Carlos de Leon spots include fiscal austerity, infrastructure projects ahead of the World Cup in 2014 and Olympics in 2016, and a big push on the domestic oil and gas industry as exemplified by Petrobras.

Investors will meanwhile benefit from the market's growth supported by strong domestic demand, growing credit availability and a large commodity resource base, de Leon said.

"The strong and dynamic economy, that allowed the country to emerge from the global financial crisis quickly, together with a large and liquid equity market offers investors access to fast-growing sectors. The investment story in Brazil continues to evolve, with consumer demand, formalisation, infrastructure, education, housing, private healthcare, energy, mining and agriculture representing high-potential investment themes."

Brazil focused funds have had a positive run over the past three years, as illustrated by Financial Express data. 

Performance of Brazil funds in IMA Specialist sector, over 3-yrs

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Source: Financial Express Analytics

Currency does play a role, however. Adjusted for currency the relative performance of the MSCI Brazil index against the FTSE All share shows considerable differences.

Returns in sterling

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Returns in local currency

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Source: Financial Express Analytics

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.