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Nutt: FTSE will never return to pre-2000 peak | Trustnet Skip to the content

Nutt: FTSE will never return to pre-2000 peak

06 December 2012

Following the announcement of the manager’s decision to retire, he talks to FE Trustnet about the highs and lows of his investment career.

By Alex Paget ,

Reporter, FE Trustnet

The FTSE 100 will never again reach the heights it hit in the pre-dotcom bubble era of the late nineties, according to Jupiter’s Anthony Nutt.

Nutt, who today announced his decision to step down from the Jupiter Income and Jupiter High Income funds, admits that while his performance in the post-financial crisis world has not been as good as he would have liked, his long-term calls have been proved right.

"What I said in a television interview in March 2000 was that I didn’t expect the FTSE 100 to reach the height that I had previously seen," he explained.

"I think this rationale is correct, and I won’t see it in my working life; it has been a very difficult macroeconomic environment to manoeuvre through."

"Although there has been a spike recently, if you analyse the shape of the UK markets it is the oil and technology sectors that have been driving the FTSE. How long can we really expect this to continue?" 

He adds that too much attention has been drawn to recent performance and that over the long run his funds have been a success.

"I take a rather long-term view of investing. That is the most comfortable way and it is the approach I have felt most confident in when it comes to performance," he commented. 

"I think my best decision with this strategy was staying out of pharmaceuticals and timing the exit of miners when I did." 

"I do feel that with Jupiter Income, this long-term view has worked; we had nine years of outperformance and it has been the last three years where the fund has struggled; one of those years being particularly bad." 

"However, that isn’t something I have been particularly worried about," Nutt added. 

According to FE Analytics, Jupiter Income has slightly underperformed against its sector over the last decade. The fund has returned 110.06 per cent while IMA UK Equity Income is up 111.84 per cent. 

Between January 2002 and December 2007 the fund made 92.09 per cent while the sector was up just 65.15 per cent, with the longer-term performance dragged down by later weak figures after the financial crash. 

Performance of fund vs sector over 10yrs

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Source: FE Analytics 

Nutt believes that the current recessionary environment will take a long time to heal and says investors need to realise growth will remain low for the foreseeable future, while their asset allocation needs to change. 

"The message needs to get across that the recent growth predictions are overstated and this period of uncertainty will carry on for some time," he said. 

"The game is changing; we are seeing that there has been a demise of private equity and now people think that in the long-term, equities will be the most favoured asset, with a return to focusing on companies' cash flows and balance sheets."

"It will be the case of investors going back to basics and analysing a company’s fundamentals," he added. 

FE Alpha Manager Philip Matthews is set to take control of the Jupiter High Income fund as of next year, while Ben Whitmore will manage Jupiter Income. 

Whitmore, who currently heads the Jupiter UK Alpha and Jupiter Special Situations portfolios, has made 110.82 per cent over his career in fund management, which started in August 2001, while his peer group composite has returned 76.00 per cent. 

Performance of manager vs peers since August 2001

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Source: FE Analytics 

Whitmore told FE Trustnet that although there will be a change in Jupiter Income's management, it will pursue the same investment strategies.

"Tony (Nutt) and I are both contrarian investors who look at the long-term. Over time, there will of course be differences between our management styles, but nothing untoward will change in the portfolio." 

Looking ahead to next year, Whitmore says he sees a number of opportunities emerging out of the current macro uncertainty. 

"I am by no-means a great macro expert, but we are in a balance-sheet recession that will mean it will be very difficult to grind out nominal economic growth."

"However, there have been so many uncertain macro-economic periods over the years and there are always going to be areas where opportunities spring up." 

"We are seeing opportunities in BP, for instance. It is very lowly valued and also certain areas of the media sector are looking very attractive at the moment."

"There are a range of assets that are very undervalued because people are generally depressed about them."

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Data provided by FE fundinfo. Care has been taken to ensure that the information is correct, but FE fundinfo neither warrants, represents nor guarantees the contents of information, nor does it accept any responsibility for errors, inaccuracies, omissions or any inconsistencies herein. Past performance does not predict future performance, it should not be the main or sole reason for making an investment decision. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise.